NCF Renewal forecast for 2001
Probability of Renewing Versus Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
199910										From renewal and registration data
199911	28%	39%	51%
199912	51%	69%	64%	69%	67%	70%	70%			There are some 'edge effects' due to renewals in progress
200001	40%	66%	64%	66%	68%	65%	71%
200002	43%	71%	66%	60%	66%	72%	78%
200003	39%	58%	60%	63%	60%	72%	71%
200004	28%	58%	68%	58%	61%	69%	70%
200005	27%	55%	60%	53%	58%	63%	69%
200006	21%	49%	47%	56%	55%	64%	70%
200007	17%	33%	49%
200008	13%	53%	42%
200009	9%	37%	35%
p(Renew)	29%	53%	55%	61%	62%	68%	71%			Best estimate of probability of renewal, based on years at NCF
Number of Members Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Sum		Adjustments to account for renewals in progress
199910	105	74	32	39	0	1	4	255
199911	260	64	42	51	8	5	6	436
199912	114	96	37	43	81	134	190	695
200001	156	99	66	66	159	141	231	918
200002	164	120	59	49	107	132	211	842
200003	186	98	50	39	83	150	311	917
200004	114	56	44	50	64	164	334	826
200005	112	40	41	34	44	104	253	628
200006	125	31	38	22	44	23	82	365
200007	113	48	25	46	39	0	0	271
200008	135	30	42	39	41	0	0	287
200009	160	57	46	43	49	0	0	355		100	40	20	20	25
Sum	1744	813	522	521	719	854	1622	6795
Renewal Forecast Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Sum
199910		30	40	18	24	0	1	3	115		Predicted 'survivors' of next renewal cycle
199911		75	34	23	31	5	3	4	176
199912		33	51	20	26	50	91	135	407		Column 1 is where new members would appear
200001		45	53	36	40	99	96	164	533
200002		47	64	33	30	67	90	150	480
200003		54	52	28	24	52	102	221	531
200004		33	30	24	30	40	111	237	506
200005		32	21	23	21	27	71	180	374
200006		36	17	21	13	27	16	58	188
200007		33	26	14	28	24	0	0	124
200008		39	16	23	24	26	0	0	127
200009		46	30	25	26	31	0	0	159
Sum		502	434	288	317	448	580	1151	3720
		14%	12%	8%	9%	12%	16%	31%	100%
Ave donation		$51.39	$48.07	$51.30	$55.84	$62.74	$62.74	$62.74			Data to the right is from the table below.  The ranges are from 1998, applied to this year's data.
p(donation)		76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%	76%
											Average annual donation by ID range				1998 data
Donations Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF											(total & ave donations from lots of 500)
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Sum		1	aa001	$15,850	$31.70
199910		$1,182	$1,444	$689	$1,007	$0	$32	$135	$4,488		4151	ae151	$14,116	$28.23
199911		$2,926	$1,249	$904	$1,317	$238	$162	$203	$6,997		9091	aj091	$13,880	$27.76
199912		$1,283	$1,873	$796	$1,110	$2,405	$4,340	$6,429	$18,236		15221	ap221	$13,411	$26.82
200001		$1,755	$1,931	$1,420	$1,704	$4,721	$4,566	$7,816	$23,915		21224	av224	$13,141	$26.28
200002		$1,845	$2,341	$1,269	$1,265	$3,177	$4,275	$7,139	$21,313		30575	be575	$12,764	$25.53
200003		$2,093	$1,912	$1,076	$1,007	$2,465	$4,858	$10,523	$23,933		42125	bq125	$12,711	$25.42
200004		$1,283	$1,093	$947	$1,291	$1,900	$5,311	$11,301	$23,126		55885	cd885	$12,379	$24.76
200005		$1,260	$780	$882	$878	$1,307	$3,368	$8,560	$17,036		68001	cq001	$11,518	$23.04
200006		$1,407	$605	$818	$568	$1,307	$745	$2,774	$8,223		78681	da681	$11,905	$23.81
200007		$1,272	$936	$538	$1,188	$1,158	$0	$0	$5,092		86952	di952	$10,489	$20.98
200008		$1,519	$585	$904	$1,007	$1,217	$0	$0	$5,232		93844	dp844	$12,400	$24.80
200009		$1,800	$1,112	$990	$1,110	$1,455	$0	$0	$6,467		99621	dv621	$10,963	$21.93
									$164,058		103058	dz058	$11,731	$23.46
											105577	eb577	$12,786	$25.57	1998 data
Renewals by Month			Min Contrib	$75.00	Min contribtuion							7500 donors
YearMon	Donations	People	Model	95%	Probability of donation (versus volunteering) (min contrib model).  Otherwise:							76%	= p(donation) from Nov2000 ED report
200010	$5,973	148	$10,518
200011	$5,116	130	$9,262
200012	$9,807	234	$16,651											$25.34	Average of above
200101	$19,655	438	$31,243											$34.81	Ave from Aug2000 ED report
200102	$23,264	520	$37,031		There is a lag time of about 3 weeks (from notice to receiving donation)									2.15	Scaling factor
200103	$21,968	493	$35,102		The values to the left have been shifted to account for the lag time
200104	$23,731	525	$37,409
200105	$21,603	473	$33,694		(the time lag might be longer than 3 weeks; I didn't check this)
200106	$14,833	328	$23,363
200107	$7,440	172	$12,267
200108	$5,127	125	$8,909		Green	Likely donations under 'please donate' model
200109	$5,541	135	$9,631		Yellow	Likely donations under 'minimum contribution' model
	$164,058	3,720	$265,079
Does not include revenue from NEW registrations